Ukraine-Russia Conflict Fueling Global Food Crisis
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has not only decimated large parts of Ukraine, but it is also having disastrous ripple effects across the globe. Food shortages, the rising price of oil and energy, and consequent rises in the price of living will harm many people, particularly those in developing regions such as Africa and the Middle East where people are already economically vulnerable.
“Many countries in Africa were already in a food crisis,” explained senior researcher on poverty and inequality at Human Rights Watch, Lena Simet, “Rising prices are compounding the plight of millions of people thrown into poverty by the Covid-19 pandemic, requiring urgent action by governments and the international community.”
Ukraine and Russia are the two of the biggest ‘breadbaskets’ of the world, accounting for a third of global wheat and barley exports. Countries in the Middle East and Africa rely on these exports to feed millions of people who subsist on subsidized bread. In anticipation of these food shortages following the war, the global prices for wheat and barley have soared. They are up 48 % and 28 % respectively since early February when the war began. This leads to higher food prices globally, particularly for those countries dependent on the imports.
The rising price of living, especially of food, is also due to increasing energy and fertilizer costs due to the war. Ukraine and Russia are also some of the world’s most important suppliers of fertilizers. Russia is the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers and the second top exporter of both potassium and phosphorus fertilizers. Russia is also the largest exporter of oil, and Europe is dependent on it for natural gas. The prices of fertilizers and energy have sharply risen following the war, which increases the price of agricultural activities, and this in turn results either in higher food prices or less agricultural outputs. The price of cooking oil has also climbed.
“Russia is using food as a weapon of war. Destroying crops, blocking tonnes of grain, [and] risking global famine,” tweeted the president of the European Council, Charles Michel.
Which Countries Are Most Affected, and Which Are Responsible?
Although globally everyone will feel the pinch from the increasing cost of living, poorer countries that rely on imports will suffer the most. West Africa and the Sahel region were already facing food insecurity before the war began, and The World Food Program estimates that the conflict could push 4 to 10 million additional people in West Africa to become food insecure. Countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, are also at risk.
There are many factors that have contributed to what analysts are calling a ‘perfect storm’ for global food supplies. Many countries are already reeling from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, which pushed up food prices and other costs. Many regions are also expecting lower than usual crop outputs due to drought, such as in South America, India, and Europe.
These factors are compounded by the actions of Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. Russia has implemented a blockade of Ukraine’s seaports, and Ukraine in turn has placed mines at their Odesa port to protect the strategic site. Meanwhile, as part of its sanctions against Russia, the EU has blocked some of Russia’s largest banks from the Swift interbank messaging system, which is headquartered in Belgium. This makes it increasingly difficult for countries to do any business with Russia.
What makes matters worse is that countries are engaging in behaviors that would usually not be expected in the international system. Many states are stockpiling goods and banning the exports of growingly scarce food products, including India, Argentina, Indonesia and others.
How it Could Be Resolved
“In the immediate future, we would like everything to be done to release available grain stocks and ensure transport and access to the market, to avoid a catastrophic scenario of shortages and generalised high prices,” said the president of Senegal and chair of the African Union, Macky Sall.
The World Bank president, David Malpass, has discouraged countries from subsidising production or regulating prices. He says that the focus should be on increasing supplies of fertilisers and food across the world, and aiding the poorest who are most at risk. Michel of the European Council has said that the EU is “sparing no efforts to free Ukraine’s exports overland and exploring alternative sea routes.”
